Washington Post: 3 GOP Seats in Va. in Jeopardy, Big Win for Gov. Warner Expected

Chris Cillizza, a political writer with the Washington Post has named the Top 50 House seats across the country most likely to switch hands on Tuesday. There are three seats held by Virginia Republicans on the list. He’s also made a bold prediction about Gov. Mark Warner’s Senate race against Gov. Jim Gilmore.

No. 6 – Gerry Connolly’s race to win the seat held by retiring GOP Rep. Tom Davis. Cillizza writes:

Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerry Connolly (D) is now on TV in the costly Washington (D.C.) media market. (The Fix knows — we’ve seen the ads!). It’s probably a precautionary measure given the strong Democratic tilt of northern Virginia. (Previous ranking: 6)

No. 28 – Glenn Nye’s race to defeat GOP Rep. Thelma Drake. Cillizza writes:

Rep. Thelma Drake (R) entered this cycle without having set roots in this southern Virginia district, and now with Obama running strong in the area Drake is in serious trouble. Democrat Glenn Nye is new to the political game and has made his shar of errors but in a district where 21 percent of the population is African American, a huge black turnout for Obama could carry Nye over the line. (Moved from 42 to 28.)

No. 44 – Tom Perriello’s race to defeat GOP Rep. Virgil Goode. Cillizza writes:

Virginia’s 5th district (R): It took a long time — way too long — for Rep. Virgil Goode (R) to realize he was in a real race against Democrat Tom Perriello. And now, Goode continues to struggle to beat back a story about his ties to a movie called, “Eden’s Curve” that documents the life of a gay man in college. (Moved from 50 to 44.)

And what is Cillizza’s prediction for Gov. Mark Warner’s Senate race against Gov. Jim Gilmore? Cillizza predicts the Senate seat currently held by retiring GOP Senator John Warner the nation’s most likely to switch party control. Cillizza writes:

The only question that remains is whether former Gov. Mark Warner (D) can break 60 percent in his race against former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R). Our bet? Yes. (Previous ranking: 1)



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