The Money Trail for Va. Gov. candidates between now and June 9

Earlier this evening, the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP) released its analysis of the latest campaign finance reports submitted by the candidates for Governor.

Here’s what the latest numbers are for the 2nd quarter which began on April 1, 2009 and ended, for reporting purposes, on May 27:

GOP nominee Bob McDonnell raised $3.7 million during the period from 2,159 donors and has $4,891,551 in cash on hand. While this is a sizable amount of money, I’m not sure it’s as much as McDonnell should have raised during the period given that he was unopposed for the GOP nomination. (Keep in mind that $2.25 million of that came from the Republican National Committee and the Republican Governors Association.) His cash on hand level is about where it should be given that he has been advertising on television in the Washington, DC media market. (That said, he did outraise all three Democrats and he has a substantial cash on hand advantage.)

What’s more interesting to me is that the three Democrats have raised so little in comparison.

Terry McAuliffe raised $1.8 million during the period from 1,664 donors. He has $1,187,521 cash on hand.

Brian Moran raised $844,242 during the period from 1,680 donors. He has $707,237 cash on hand.

Creigh Deeds raised $678,428 during the period from 1,300 donors. He has $521,950 cash on hand.

What’s not entirely clear from the reports is how much television advertising the Democrats have already paid for vs. what they still will buy between now and June 9. (These reports were through May 27.)

What I am interested in knowing is how much money Terry McAuliffe will leave unspent by June 9. My guess is he is very confident of a win and he wants to spend as little as possible for the remainder of the primary.

Time will tell if that’s a wise strategy. Be watching for McAuliffe’s television spend in Northern Virginia. If he buys time in the Washington, D.C. market, even on cable, there must be movement for Deeds or Moran in McAuliffe’s internal tracking poll numbers.

As far as where the money came from, the McAuliffe money came from a large number of out of state Clinton donors. (There’s at least two people appointed by President Clinton to be an ambassador on the McAuliffe list.) T-Mac Daddy also brought in $200K from AFSCME. Nice. But to the credit of the Macker team, they’ve stepped up their small dollar donor program considerably — 1127 people gave McAuliffe $100 or less. (Thank you!)

We won’t know until the end of the week how much of this money came from non-Virginians. But regardless of the number, look for that to increase regardless of who the Democrats nominate.

My sense is that many donors made their primary contributions in the first quarter. Look for those donors to give again after June 9.

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