Just posted tonight on the Public Policy Polling blog: State Senator Creigh Deeds has taken a commanding lead in the final poll conducted by the firm. According to PPP, “Deeds is now at 40%, followed by Terry McAuliffe at 26%, and Brian Moran at 24%.”
As for me, even though I am a Creigh Deeds supporter, I don’t have a great deal of confidence in PPP’s polling because they don’t actually speak with voters — they robo call them. A few weeks ago, when other candidates were leading in the PPP poll, the Washington Post explained why they don’t trust the polling method. (Meanwhile, to rebut the Post’s criticism of their firm, PPP pointed to this item in the Wall Street Journal which showed that PPP was the 2nd most reliable poll in the 2008 presidential campaign.)
Despite PPP’s record in the 2008 campaign, I think the Post is right. Additionally, I think this electorate is too fluid to really know with any confidence what will happen on Tuesday. (The expected low turnout exacerbates the unpredictability of this election. In fact, the PPP team cautions tonight that:
Voter preferences in this election are about as fluid as in any race PPP has ever polled. The fact that Deeds went from 20% to 40% in two and a half weeks speaks pretty strongly to that. There have always been a lot of undecideds, and we have repeatedly showed that even many voters with a preference are open to changing it. Usually voter preferences are pretty hardened by 48-72 hours before an election but if there was ever one where that could change this would be it. That said, Deeds’ margin is pretty commanding.
I guess we will see on Tuesday in the poll that really counts.